SK Hynix Crashed 15% — Here's Why Wall Street Is Still Screaming "Buy

If you held SK Hynix shares on July 13th, your stomach probably dropped. While the broader KOSPI was already shaky, SK Hynix shares plunged 15.37% in a single session, bottoming out at 1,845,000 KRW. And yet, the very next morning, brokerages across the board were simultaneously cutting their price targets and telling investors to buy the dip. With earnings forecasts falling and the stock in freefall at the same time, it’s worth asking: what exactly is going on with one of SK Group’s crown jewels — and is this a genuine crisis or a fleeting overreaction?

Nasdaq ADR Soared 10% on Debut While the Korean Stock Tanked 15%

The trigger for all of this was SK Hynix’s debut on the Nasdaq through an ADR (American Depositary Receipt). On its first day of U.S. trading, the SK Hynix ADR shot up more than 10% in a flashy debut — but back home in Korea, the domestic shares moved in the exact opposite direction, cratering more than 15%. Investors who had been holding in anticipation of the U.S. listing decided the news was now fully priced in, and a wave of profit-taking followed.

The selloff didn’t stop at the Pacific. On July 13th (local time), the SK Hynix ADR itself tumbled over 9%, sliding back toward its IPO price of $149 — wiping out nearly all of the 12.8% gain it had notched on its opening day. The fact that shares were falling simultaneously in both Seoul and New York suggests this wasn’t just a technical supply-demand blip. Markets were starting to question whether the stock had already peaked.

Why Earnings Forecasts Were Cut — The Irony of Long-Term HBM Contracts

Alongside the share price drop came a flood of downward earnings revisions from major brokerages. Mirae Asset Securities slashed its Q2 operating profit forecast for SK Hynix from 70.7 trillion KRW to 62.3 trillion KRW — a roughly 12% cut. Korea Investment & Securities took a similarly cautious stance, projecting Q2 consolidated operating profit at 60.4 trillion KRW, about 8% below the market consensus of 65 trillion KRW.

Ironically, the main culprit behind these downgrades is something that’s supposed to be a competitive advantage: HBM long-term supply agreements (LTAs). Because SK Hynix derives a larger share of its revenue from HBM than its rivals, its average selling price (ASP) growth tends to be more muted than the broader market average. As more customers push for five-year supply commitments, the ASP increase from cloud service providers (CSPs) is coming in below what industry analysts had originally projected. In other words, stable long-term contracts are acting as a natural ceiling on short-term price spikes.

“The Stock Already Priced It In” — Why Brokerages Are Still Bullish

So if earnings forecasts are going down, why are analysts still telling you to buy? Mirae Asset’s view is that the recent selloff overshot to the downside — it was essentially an unwind of inflated expectations tied to the Q2 earnings beat and the ADR listing buzz, and the market overcorrected. The brokerage maintained its “Buy” rating and a price target of 4,200,000 KRW.

There’s also a growing argument that the long-term earnings structure remains completely intact. Korea Investment & Securities pointed out that the expansion of LTAs and sustained HBM supply shortages will continue to support strong profitability for years to come, adding that “LTA growth is actively reducing the earnings volatility that has long been memory chip companies’ Achilles’ heel.” The old playbook — where slowing ASP growth signals a cycle downturn — may simply no longer apply here.

Mirae Asset went further, projecting SK Hynix’s 2027 operating profit at 389 trillion KRW, a 45.7% jump from 2026, with HBM continuing to be the primary price driver. They also noted that once LTA-committed and HBM-dedicated capacity is set aside, the remaining available supply becomes even tighter — which structurally supports pricing power going forward.

July 22nd Earnings: The Real Turning Point — What Investors Should Watch

SK Hynix is set to report its Q2 results on July 22nd. More than the headline numbers, this earnings call will be closely watched for updates on HBM4 mass production timelines, long-term contract pricing negotiations, and second-half demand guidance — all of which will determine the stock’s true direction from here.

HBM4 production ramp speed: SK Hynix has officially confirmed that customer demand over the next three years far exceeds the company’s current production capacity. How quickly HBM4 volume ramps up will be the single biggest variable for Q3 results.
Price target range: Analyst price targets currently range from 2,300,000 KRW to as high as 4,200,000 KRW — an unusually wide spread. Watch for how that consensus converges after the earnings release.
ADR price movement: SK Hynix’s Nasdaq-listed ADR trades under the ticker SKHY, while the original common shares (000660) continue trading on the KOSPI. The spread between the two will serve as a real-time gauge of foreign investor sentiment.
Samsung’s HBM comeback: Samsung Electronics has reportedly been selected as an HBM4 supplier for AMD’s next-generation AI accelerators, signaling a push to reclaim HBM market share. Whether SK Hynix can maintain its dominant position in the second half is a critical storyline to follow.

Is This a Crisis or a Buying Opportunity?

Looked at objectively, this selloff looks less like a fundamental breakdown and more like a necessary reality check after runaway expectations. SK Hynix posted an operating margin of 72% in Q1 — and even if Q2 comes in below consensus, operating profit in the 60-trillion-KRW range is still very much on the table. The business hasn’t deteriorated; the market simply got ahead of itself and is now catching its breath. That said, real risks remain — HBM4 certification delays, currency headwinds from a stronger Korean won, and Samsung’s competitive resurgence aren’t things to dismiss. Before the July 22nd earnings call, the wisest move is probably to hold off on making any bold directional bets and instead listen carefully to the tone of management’s guidance on the conference call. That’ll tell you far more than the headline profit number will.