Lee Jae-myung’s Approval Rebounds to 58% — But the Numbers Tell a More Complicated Story

As of July 2, 2026, a new poll shows President Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating bouncing back to 58%. After dropping more than 10 percentage points from its peak, the word “rebound” is technically accurate — but dig beneath the surface and the picture gets a lot more complicated. Disapproval ratings rose at the same time, and support among voters in their 20s remains stuck in the mid-40s. Here’s a breakdown of why approval ticked up at this particular moment, and which demographic groups are still showing cracks.

The Latest NBS Poll: A Slim 1-Point Recovery to 58%

The National Barometer Survey (NBS) — conducted jointly by four polling firms, Embrain Public, KStat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research — interviewed 1,000 adults aged 18 and over nationwide by telephone between June 29 and July 1. The results, released in the first week of July, show President Lee’s job approval at 58%, up 1 percentage point from the previous survey. The slide that began after the June 3 local elections has, at least for now, come to a halt.

There’s a catch, though. Disapproval also climbed — rising 2 percentage points to 35%. When both approval and disapproval go up simultaneously, it typically means that fence-sitters are finally picking a side. In other words, people who had been holding back are now breaking toward both camps. On the surface, this looks like a rebound. But a more accurate reading may be that public opinion is polarizing rather than consolidating behind the president.

Who’s Holding Steady — and Who’s Drifting Away

Breaking the numbers down by age, every demographic except those in their 20s is above the 50% threshold. Voters in their 40s and 50s are delivering approval in the high 60s, making them the bedrock of the president’s support base right now.

The story is starkly different among younger voters. Respondents in their 20s — including 18- and 19-year-olds — gave the president a 45% approval rating, while disapproval hit 39%. Things were even worse right after the June 3 local elections, when disapproval among voters in their 20s and 30s surpassed 60%, the highest of any age group at that time.

Voters in their 30s did show a recovery in this latest survey, with approval jumping 7 percentage points to 55%. Those aged 70 and older also improved, rising 5 points to 53%. On the ideological spectrum, 86% of self-identified progressives and 61% of moderates rated the president’s performance positively, while 66% of conservatives gave him a negative mark.

What Triggered the Original Collapse: The Ballot Shortage Scandal

To understand the sharp drop of the past several weeks, you need to go back to the June 3 local elections. The president’s approval fell 7 percentage points in a single week to 57%, and Gallup Korea identified the National Election Commission’s mismanagement as the top reason cited by critics. The ballot shortage crisis — where voters in some areas were turned away or faced serious disruptions due to insufficient ballots — hit the president’s numbers almost immediately.

Nearly seven in ten South Koreans — 67% — described the ballot shortage as “a failure of election administration and a violation of voting rights,” signaling a near-total collapse of public trust in election management at that moment.

A RealMeter poll released on June 29 painted an even grimmer picture, putting Lee’s approval at just 46.5% — the lowest since taking office. RealMeter attributed the slump to a combination of factors: the government’s slow and inadequate response to the election commission crisis, ongoing economic pain from high exchange rates and inflation, and internal ruling-party conflict over the abolition of the prosecution’s supplementary investigative authority.

Party Support: Democrats at 42%, PPP Collapses to 20%

The same NBS poll shows the Democratic Party gaining 1 point to reach 42% in party support, while the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) shed 5 points, falling to just 20%. That widens the gap between the two parties to 22 percentage points — up sharply from the 16-point margin recorded in the previous survey.

Perhaps most striking: even among voters aged 70 and older — traditionally the PPP’s most loyal base — the Democratic Party (39%) now leads the PPP (29%). For the opposition, these numbers demand some serious soul-searching about where their support has gone and why.

So What Does 58% Actually Mean Right Now?

President Lee had maintained a comfortable approval rating in the 60s from the start of his term. That streak held from February until the survey in the second week of June, when approval dropped 9 percentage points to 57% — the steepest single-week fall of his presidency. This week’s 1-point uptick means the bleeding has stopped. It does not mean a full recovery is underway.

The most important signal to watch is the continued erosion of support among younger voters. The ballot crisis struck a nerve with young people who feel their democratic rights were compromised, and that anger compounds the everyday frustrations of a generation dealing with an unforgiving job market, sky-high housing costs, tightening loan conditions, and relentless inflation. If the administration wants to win these voters back, it won’t be enough to point to polling numbers — people need to feel a tangible difference in their daily lives. The real test of whether this rebound is sustainable will likely come next month, when the government rolls out its next round of economic relief measures.

Sources

• President Lee’s Approval at 58% — Democrats 42%, PPP 20% [NBS] — MBC News
• Lee Jae-myung Approval Rebounds to 58%; PPP Drops 5 Points to 20% — The Report
• President Lee’s Approval at 58% — The Decline Has Stopped [NBS] — Edaily
• President Lee’s Approval at 58% — End of the Drop, or Start of a Recovery? — OhmyNews
• Lee Jae-myung’s Approval Under Pressure from Economic Woes, Young Voter Disillusionment — BusinessPost